Strengthening European Paperboard Supply Continuity in Healthcare Packaging 

In a market that faces changing conditions, packaging continuity depends on more than just compliant materials — it depends on having options. Below, we outline why relying on a single paperboard choice can introduce avoidable risk for healthcare brands and how to strengthen the resilience of the packaging supply chain. 

When a Qualified Specification Becomes a Single Point of Dependency

For healthcare packaging, material choices are locked down through standardised qualification and change-control processes — and for good reason. But when a company limits its approval to only one specification of paperboard from a specific mill or supplier, it can unintentionally create a single point of failure in the packaging supply chain. In a critical time, when specific paperboard becomes constrained or unavailable, even short interruptions can cascade into production delays, expedited logistics, and potential service-level impacts across critical product lines. 

Why the European Paperboard Market Is Changing

This risk is amplified in today’s European paperboard market in combination with the industrial process of paperboard production. The overall capacity of paperboard in Europe is currently around 14 million tonnes. While virgin paperboard capacity has expanded as mills anticipated a faster shift from plastic to fibre-based packaging, overall packaging demand has softened amid inflationary pressure and weaker consumer confidence — particularly in food and beverage, the largest paperboard-consuming sector. In the medium term, additional capacity is also coming onstream globally: five new mills are expected in the next five years, with the majority located outside Europe (four of the five in the Far East and the Americas). At the same time, European mills face intensifying environmental pressure, including the energy footprint of production and the operational impact of processing mixed waste that exceeds the 1.5% Non-Paper Material (NPM) maximum per bale. Over the longer term, these pressures are already translating into consolidation: four (smaller) European mills have closed in the last two years, and more closures are predicted in the coming years. The combined effect is an oversupplied, highly competitive market, where capacity exceeds the actual demand. Considering that paperboard-making is a continuous process industry, the situation is expected to force manufacturers to protect margins through rationalisation. 

What Market Consolidation Could Mean for Availability and Lead Times

As capacity is taken out of the system, some mills may close individual machines, discontinue grades, or, in more severe cases, exit the market altogether. For healthcare brands that have qualified only one paperboard, that kind of disruption can become immediate: supply allocations tighten, substitution is not permitted without formal approval, and qualifying an alternative board takes extensive time and effort. The most resilient approach is to anticipate this scenario — building qualified options before a disruption occurs — so continuity is maintained even if the market changes quickly. 

The good news is that this risk can be managed proactively. By building approval pathways for more than one paperboard option, healthcare organisations can reduce dependency on any single mill or grade while maintaining the required pack performance and compliance standards. Below are three practical ways we support customers through the contingency planning, qualification and implementation steps needed to enable secure continuity of supply. 

What’s Next?

If you would like to explore dual-approval homologation options for your portfolio, our healthcare sales team is ready to help. Contact us to review your current specifications, discuss potential alternative paperboards and agree the most efficient route to testing and approval — so you can strengthen resilience before market uncertainty becomes a disruption. 

Packaging is a tangible and highly visible product, and it’s understandable that people want to know where it comes from. But facts matter — and the facts show that the paperboard industry is not the driver of forest loss. 

If anything, with responsible practices and expertise at the forefront, it’s part of the solution, keeping forests in active use, encouraging land stewardship, and maintaining critical carbon sinks. 

To learn more about our “Better, Every Day” approach to sustainability, visit our sustainability area to explore our commitments in full.